Or Hundreds and Thousands. Some people are numerate, some people are literate, and some people just like sport. Last time I blogged, and it’s been a while, I wrote that come summer, with the Ashes back in our keep, and with what Alan Olsen and I described as the ‘green shoots’ of an international student recovery in Australia, we would all be in Nirvana Down Under. Well, I hate to say I told you so but … I got it half right. We got the Ashes back, as predicted.
Green shoots, on the other hand, was a significant underestimate of what was going on in international education in Australia. More like fecund growth, to quote Roy and HG. The following chart, courtesy of Alan Olsen using AEI data, shows the growth in commencements for all sectors for onshore international students in Australia by semester, from 2003 to the end of 2013.
Green shoots, on the other hand, was a significant underestimate of what was going on in international education in Australia. More like fecund growth, to quote Roy and HG. The following chart, courtesy of Alan Olsen using AEI data, shows the growth in commencements for all sectors for onshore international students in Australia by semester, from 2003 to the end of 2013.
Now that’s what I call a recovery.
Alan writes:
“ … starts across all sectors are up 9.3% in 2013 because starts in first semester were up 2.5% and starts in second semester are up 17.4%. Significant turnaround.”
This is also the case sector by sector: first semester is either flat or showing marginal growth, whereas second semester is, well, fecund. The English language sector is the stand out. Alan again:
“Starts in ELICOS are up 21.0% in 2013 because starts in first semester were up 14.5% and starts in second semester are up 26.8%.”
English language colleges are seeing the highest number of commencements in 4 years, particularly in university language centres, which bodes well for university commencements in both Semester 1 and 2 in 2014.
There are further signs of a recovery well under way. Hobsons Australia has again shared its enquiry data.
Alan writes:
“ … starts across all sectors are up 9.3% in 2013 because starts in first semester were up 2.5% and starts in second semester are up 17.4%. Significant turnaround.”
This is also the case sector by sector: first semester is either flat or showing marginal growth, whereas second semester is, well, fecund. The English language sector is the stand out. Alan again:
“Starts in ELICOS are up 21.0% in 2013 because starts in first semester were up 14.5% and starts in second semester are up 26.8%.”
English language colleges are seeing the highest number of commencements in 4 years, particularly in university language centres, which bodes well for university commencements in both Semester 1 and 2 in 2014.
There are further signs of a recovery well under way. Hobsons Australia has again shared its enquiry data.
This slide updates the previous slide provided to GlobalEd Services by Hobsons, adding enquiry data for quarters 3 and 4 in 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. As the A$ has fallen, so enquiry levels have jumped, aided by stability in the student visa regime and post-study work rights, as I previously commented. With Streamlined Visa Processing (SVP) being rolled out to institutions other than universities, we can expect to see positive impact among non-university higher ed providers over the next 12 months.
All the signs are there that the current recovery has some time to run yet. In October Alan and I modelled that revenue from international students would recover to $16.389 billion in 2015, on the strength of 531,000 enrolments. Given the rate of the current recovery, I’m inclined to wait and see as far as enrolment and revenue predictions are concerned, and stick to sport, where at least I have some track record. I already have my tickets to the cricket world cup final in Melbourne next year – no surprises which team I’m tipping to take home that prize.
With thanks to Alan Olsen of Strategy Planning and Research in Education (SPRE), and Stephen Reimann of Hobsons Asia Pacific.
All the signs are there that the current recovery has some time to run yet. In October Alan and I modelled that revenue from international students would recover to $16.389 billion in 2015, on the strength of 531,000 enrolments. Given the rate of the current recovery, I’m inclined to wait and see as far as enrolment and revenue predictions are concerned, and stick to sport, where at least I have some track record. I already have my tickets to the cricket world cup final in Melbourne next year – no surprises which team I’m tipping to take home that prize.
With thanks to Alan Olsen of Strategy Planning and Research in Education (SPRE), and Stephen Reimann of Hobsons Asia Pacific.
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