We know the value of the A$ has a significant impact on Australia’s ability to attract international students. Steve Reimann from Hobsons Asia Pacific has kindly shared some slides showing the relationship between the A$ and enquiry levels for Hobsons’ Australian university clients, and between the A$ and commencement performance. They make for interesting viewing.
The first slide shows enquiry performance between the second half of 2006 and the first half of 2013. As the A$ rose from US$0.75 in 2006 to US$0.95 in 2008, enquiries from international students fell. When the Aussie fell off a cliff at the end of 2008, enquiry levels jumped for two quarters, then fell again dramatically during 2009 as the dollar began its inexorable rise towards US$1.05 (mid-2011). The chart shows though that enquiries began to fall even before the value of the A$ had increased by much in the early part of 2009, impacted by the student safety concerns of the time, the closure of a number of private colleges and subsequent dislocation of students, and the ensuing confusion about the student visa regime. Well we remember the Perfect Storm.
What I find interesting about this slide though is the persistent high value of the A$ between Quarter 2 2011 and Quarter 4 2012, and the counter-intuitive performance of enquiries, which increased dramatically in 5 consecutive quarters, in spite of the high dollar. Anecdotally, and here supported by the stats, the introduction of Streamlined Visa Processing (SVP) for universities, followed by Post-Study Work Rights (PSWR), steadied the market. Getting these settings right seems to have counterbalanced the strength of the A$, for a time at least. The first two quarters of 2013 show a considerable slowing of the enquiry trend, due possibly to the persistently high A$. Other settings can only have a positive impact for so long – eventually the currency bites. I would expect however that the now lower A$, seen dropping in the chart already in Quarter 2 2013 and currently around US$0.90, will mean increased enquiry levels for the remainder of 2013 and beyond.
The next slide is interesting as well.
What I find interesting about this slide though is the persistent high value of the A$ between Quarter 2 2011 and Quarter 4 2012, and the counter-intuitive performance of enquiries, which increased dramatically in 5 consecutive quarters, in spite of the high dollar. Anecdotally, and here supported by the stats, the introduction of Streamlined Visa Processing (SVP) for universities, followed by Post-Study Work Rights (PSWR), steadied the market. Getting these settings right seems to have counterbalanced the strength of the A$, for a time at least. The first two quarters of 2013 show a considerable slowing of the enquiry trend, due possibly to the persistently high A$. Other settings can only have a positive impact for so long – eventually the currency bites. I would expect however that the now lower A$, seen dropping in the chart already in Quarter 2 2013 and currently around US$0.90, will mean increased enquiry levels for the remainder of 2013 and beyond.
The next slide is interesting as well.
This slide measures Higher Education commencement quarterly variations against the AUS$/US$ exchange rate for the same period. Performance is as expected, with the decreasing trend in 2009 following the perfect storm becoming a rather depressing state of affairs during 2010-11, but with visa and work rights settings in place commencement performance improves. In spite of the drop in enquiry levels in the first two quarters of 2013, it may be that the recent sudden fall in the value of the A$ will mean those lower enquiry levels won’t translate into diminished commencement performance later this year or next.
Positive enquiry and commencement performance during 2012/13 in a context of a high A$ was also helped by our friends in the UK shooting themselves in the foot over the same period with confused messages about how welcome international students are, much as we had managed to do in Australia a few years earlier. They may have the Ashes, temporarily, but we have a falling A$, supported by SVP and PSWR. When we get the Ashes back next summer we will all be in Nirvana Down Under.
The final two slides show interesting contrasts between two of Australia’s top five source countries for international students.
Positive enquiry and commencement performance during 2012/13 in a context of a high A$ was also helped by our friends in the UK shooting themselves in the foot over the same period with confused messages about how welcome international students are, much as we had managed to do in Australia a few years earlier. They may have the Ashes, temporarily, but we have a falling A$, supported by SVP and PSWR. When we get the Ashes back next summer we will all be in Nirvana Down Under.
The final two slides show interesting contrasts between two of Australia’s top five source countries for international students.
Vietnam (above) remains solidly price sensitive, while Indian students (below) pay close attention to visa and work settings. Compare Quarter 2 2013 in the two slides.
Note the quarterly commencements data used in these charts is a modification of the Australian Education International monthly commencements data.
Thanks again to Steve Reimann and the team at Hobsons Asia Pacific for providing the slides.
Thanks again to Steve Reimann and the team at Hobsons Asia Pacific for providing the slides.
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